High Oil Price Scissors Spread: March 2026 Heavy Business Jet Movements Plunge 12.5% YoY While Light Jets Dip Just 3.1%, Demand Elasticity Gap Reaches 4x — Brokers Should Immediately Adjust Aircraft Type Mix Strategy

During March 1–24, 2026, Global 7500/G650/Falcon 8X/G700 combined 3,502 movements, YoY -12.5% (-500 movements), with G650's decline the steepest at -20.4% (1,516 to 1,206). Over the same period, Phenom 300/CJ3/CJ4 combined 24,645 movements, only -3.1% YoY. In a $108+/barrel oil price environment, heavy-type demand elasticity is approximately -0.45 vs. light-type's -0.11, a gap of approximately 4x. This means high oil prices significantly suppress the heavy charter market, with some long-haul demand being substituted by segmented flights or commercial first/business class, while short-haul light demand remains nearly rigid. Brokers maintaining prior-year heavy-jet capacity ratios will face surging vacancy rates. Confidence: ★★ (AviGo data complete; oil price backdrop is reasonable inference).